VoteKansas.org

Does anyone really even care that much about gay marriage? If you can't find work, are paying $4 a gallon for gas, have a loved one fighting in Afghanistan, and are struggling with rising food costs, is this really what anyone cares about? It's very relieving to know that the economic crisis is over, because the only thing the Democrats want to talk about is birth control, gay marriage, and Mitt Romney's 1980's road trip with his dog, Seamus. So with Obama's orchestrated gay marriage roll out, Americans have to suffer yet another distraction from everything Obama has done (and failed to do) over the past four years.

But shouldn't gays be more insulted than anything over Obama's laugh-out-loud "evolution" on the issue? Everyone knew Obama was lying during the 2008 campaign when he claimed to believe marriage was between a man and a woman. If he were courageous, he would have been honest then. But it didn't matter. Obama was embarrassed of his position on gays and lied about it. Honestly, his opposition to gay marriage was about as sincere as his pledge to not raise taxes (ha), to not hire lobbyists (haha), or to go through the budget with "a scalpel" (not enough ha-has in the world).

The internal polling for Obama must be brutal. His political strength -- the under-30 crowd -- can't find work and the newness of Obama has worn off. He's trailing Romney, a supposedly wooden, woman-hating, unlikeable, out-of-touch rich guy by 3 and 4 points according to Rasmussen and Gallup daily tracking polls. (But worry not, two other polls give Obama leads by oversampling Democrats by 9 and 8 points).

So here we are. Obama has suddenly "evolved" on the issue of gay marriage, and is now bullying those who held the same position he did just a few days ago. And with Obama's announcement came his promise to do absolutely nothing. For the first time in history, Obama comes out with a federalist argument on an issue, so at least that is some progress. And with a few sweet-talked words, the money poured in and Obama's 2008 gay marriage base has come back home. And he didn't even have to actually do anything in return. As Condoleezza Rice once commented about being a black, female republican: "I'd rather be ignored than patronized." Obama believes that there are enough single-issue voters who will once again fall for his sweet-talking campaign tactics, as he makes the same promises in 2012 that he did in 2008. He could be right.

Obama More Insulting than Gutsy on Gay Marriage originally appeared on About.com Conservative Politics: U.S. on Thursday, May 10th, 2012 at 14:20:01.

Permalink | Comment | Email this

Not surprisingly, the top 10 business-friendly states, according to analysis by the magazine Chief Executive, are also some of the most conservative states in the country. Hanging at the bottom of the list are liberal, union-run states.

Ranking in the top ten are Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Tennessee, Indiana, Virginia, South Carolina, Utah, and Arizona. Moat of these states have low taxes, business incentives, right-to-work laws, and conservative legislatures or governors. They are all also top Romney-targeted states in the upcoming elections.

The bottom ten are California, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Oregon, and Hawaii. These states tend to have higher taxation, big labor influence, and liberal leadership. Also, all 10 voted overwhelmingly for Barack Obama in 2008.

Conservative States Rank as Most Business-Friendly originally appeared on About.com Conservative Politics: U.S. on Tuesday, May 8th, 2012 at 07:35:17.

Permalink | Comment | Email this

On Tuesday, Richard Mourdock has the opportunity to kick-start nationwide tea party momentum in his quest to oust longtime moderate incumbent Richard Lugar. A Victory for Mourdock in Indiana's US Senate primary could have coat-tails and help tea party candidates in other races, mainly Ted Cruz in Texas and Dan Llijenquist in Utah.

It's also important to remind voters that the tea party does not exist to defeat one man, but to defeat candidates, both Republican and Democrat, who regularly oppose economic, religious, and personal freedoms.

While Mourdock has been endorsed by all the right people including FreedomWorks, the Club for Growth, and Sarah Palin, Mourdock has received the typical establishment backing. Mourdock claims that Indianans should vote for him because he can win, and Mourdock will lose. Well, Mourdock is no Christine O'Donnell and Indiana is not Delaware. Mourdock has won statewide, his Democratic opponent would be an Obamacare and stimulus backer, and political momentum in the state is clearly on the GOP's side (in 2010, the Republicans took back the other previously Democratic-held senate seat in a 15-point landslide.

Tea Party Momentum at Stake with Mourdock in Indiana originally appeared on About.com Conservative Politics: U.S. on Monday, May 7th, 2012 at 07:39:28.

Permalink | Comment | Email this

Quinnipiac University released three new "swing state" polls for Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania and all show troubling signs for Obama. Most worrisome for Obama (and promising for conservatives) is that he is polling under 50% in all three states: 42% in Florida, 44% in Ohio, and 47% in Pennsylvania.

Despite multiple "official" visits, the power of incumbency, being against an opponent supposedly nobody likes, and having not been campaigned against yet, those numbers are incredibly weak. But dig into the numbers, and you find that it gets even worse for Obama as the pollsters weight the data to favor Obama in every possible way.

Florida:

The poll shows Romney leads Obama by 44-43%, after figures are weighted. (In weighting, pollsters can alter the data to reflect what they believe the actual election turnout will be, so as to minimize the effect of skewed polling samples. This estimate can be quite subjective). Before weighting, Romney's lead was larger. So, how did the pollster weight the Florida data? The Republican sample was weighted to be only 28% despite being 36% in 2010 (a "Republican year") and 34% in 2008 (a "Democrat year").

The weighting also reflects the pollsters opinion that Democrat turnout will be 3% higher than Republican turnout, 3% points higher than it was in 2010 and equal to 2008. So even by weighting to Democrat-favorable 2008 turnout figures (unlikely to be repeated in 2012), Obama is still trailing.

Ohio:

In Ohio, it's more of the same, but even a lot worse. While the poll shows Obama winning by just 44-42%, those figures also reflect very favorable Obama assumptions. Once again, the polling sample is weighted to drop Republican turnout to a shockingly low 24% while it was 37% in 2010 and 31% in 2008. Meanwhile, the pollster kept Democrat turnout at 36%, exactly where it was in 2010 and only 3 points less than 2010.

So while turnout in 2010 saw Republicans at 37% to 36% for Democrats, this poll "weights" the turnout to be 36% for Democrats and 24% for Republicans. And even then, Obama's lead is just 2%. If you weight the Ohio numbers to actual 2010 turnout, Romney leads 48-42%. So, a lot of these polls reflect only how pollsters prefer to "weight them." But in any case, a weighted sample of 24% for Republicans is extremely low.

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania is much of the same. While Republicans made up 37% of the electorate in both 2008 and 2010, the pollster once again weights the information so that Republican turnout is just 29%. The Democrat have a 7 point margin advantage in the weighted sample, equal to 2008 (and more than double the 3 point advantage of 2010). Here, Obama is still at only 47%, even though he scored 55% of the PA vote in 2008 (and even though a large chunk of the GOP has apparently moved out of the state according to the pollster).

Bottom Line

Polling is as much subjective as it is objective. After collecting scientific data (polls) pollsters can then alter that data to reflect whatever turnout they expect. In all three swing state polls, the samples were weighted to favor Obama, and were very similar or even more generous than 2008 turnout. Even the weighted numbers show very good signs for the tea party, opponents of Obamacare, freedom lovers, and Romney, and very troubling signs for Obama.

3 New Swing State Polls Show Bad News for Obama originally appeared on About.com Conservative Politics: U.S. on Thursday, May 3rd, 2012 at 08:39:11.

Permalink | Comment | Email this

Sure the Presidential Primary is over, but now the fun really begins as the tea party seeks to take more seats in the US Senate.

Indiana holds a GOP primary on May 8th. Richard Mourdock is challenging longtime Senator Dick Lugar.

Texas holds a GOP Primary on May 29th. Ted Cruz looks to pull a Marco Rubio-ish come from nowhere victory

Utah holds a GOP primary on June 26th. Dan Liljenquist shoots to defeat Orrin Hatch for the 2nd straight GOP incumbent defeat in the state.

More: Read all of the Tea Party Primary Details

Upcoming Tea Party vs Establishment Primary Battles originally appeared on About.com Conservative Politics: U.S. on Sunday, April 29th, 2012 at 23:28:37.

Permalink | Comment | Email this

While not yet technically official, Mitt Romney's victory in the 2012 GOP nomination was one of the easier victories in recent history. The race seemed to drag on for longer than in previous years as result of a complicated delegate system and a stretched-out primary calendar. Here is a look at some of the realities and myths surrounding Romney's apparent victory.

Read More: 5 Myths and Realities About Mitt Romney's 2012 GOP Victory

How Romney Won: Separating Fact from Fiction originally appeared on About.com Conservative Politics: U.S. on Sunday, April 29th, 2012 at 09:17:18.

Permalink | Comment | Email this

Update (8:53 PM): All States essentially called for Romney as he notches easy wins across the board. Ann Romney gives a great introduction to Mitt and shows she is leaps and bounds the best first lady candidate the Republicans have had in decades. Why she is a sure game-changer this year. Romney delivers a strong pro-economic message, while the Obama campaign continues bored and tired "Republicans hate women; Republicans hate Dogs; Republicans hate immigrants" attacks. Romney speach summed up: "It's the economy. And we are not stupid."

Update (8:30 PM): It may be early in the counting process, but Newt Gingrich is doing worse in the Rhode Island Republican Primary (6.5% of the vote) than "Uncommitted" (9.5% of the vote) is doing against Obama in the Democratic primary. The mighty Ron Paul is easily outperforming Gingrich in Rhode Island and Connecticut. But both states have already been called for Romney, who leads with 60%+ of the vote in each.

Not too long ago, Tuesday's were the greatest days in politics. Tuesday, Jan. 3 2012 kicked off the GOP primary as Rick Santorum surprised the field by winning the "first in the nation" caucus. Romney rebounded a Tuesday later by taking a win in New Hampshire, the "first in the nation primary." Then there was Florida, on Tuesday the 31st, as Newt was dealt a devastating blow by the Romney campaign in the "first in the penalized by the RNC primary." You get the point (all without even mentioning "Super Tuesday."

Today a handful of states voted in the GOP Primary, including biggies New York and Pennsylvania along with Connecticut, Delaware, and Rhode Island. But there is no polling, no build-up, no breathless "this is a must-win state for fill-in-the-blank" columns. The attack ads have dissipated. It's game over. (No, no, no. Not technically, but yes. It is.)

So, here is a "Where are They Now" and follow up to all of the great contenders of the 2012 GOP Primary that gave us almost a year of excitement.

Newt Gingrich: The closest contender after the closest contender to Romney, Newt is millions in debt but has vowed to battle all the way to Tampa. Newt misses the days of being carpet-bombed by Mitt Romney and eviscerated by SuperPAC's and is currently "insulted" that camp Romney is ignoring him altogether. If he asks nicely, Restore Our Future might throw a web attack ad his way. For the eternally optimistic Newtons, here's a bit about his Delaware efforts.

Rick Santorum: On the "yes I dropped out but pay attention to me anyway" front, Santorum will be appearing on CNN tonight (Piers Morgan, 9:30 PM!) to probably not endorse Mitt Romney. While Santorum was definitely the luckiest of the anti-Romney candidates (peaking right before Iowa), I'm not so sure of the long-term attachment of the people who supported him.

Ron Paul: I'm not sure he has conceded the 1988 election yet, but no future GOP primary will be the same without Ron Paul. This has without a doubt been his most successful run yet. Paul is currently in Texas, soaking in the broad support and accolades of college students (half of whom will turn around and vote for Obama in November). But at least he is having fun and his campaign isn't in debt. (Oh, and now he passes the torch to Rand, who will launch presidential bids for the next 4 decades.)

Mitt Romney: After insulting Newt Gingrich by only attacking President Obama, Romney will be delivering an insultingly-titled speech in New Hampshire tonight named "A Better America Begins Today." Doesn't he know he hasn't won the primary yet? All 57 states haven't voted yet, and Newt is guaranteed to finish top-3 in the rest of them. (I kid, I kid.)

And now that a year of obsessing over the GOP nomination is complete, the process for obsessing over the vice presidential nominee selection can now being. Here' to a solid 4 months of that.

Photo: Bryan Mullenix, Getty Images

Also Known as Tuesday (Where Are They Now?) originally appeared on About.com Conservative Politics: U.S. on Tuesday, April 24th, 2012 at 17:46:51.

Permalink | Comment | Email this

As the debate over who presumptive nominee Mitt Romney should pick as his running-mate gets into full swing, a question also remains about how valuable the selection really is. Read about the top VP contenders for 2012.

How important a bottom-of-the-ticket nominee is may be overstated. Typically, pundits ask what state or demographic a nominee might bring, as well as what experience void the individual may fill. Both Sarah Palin and Geraldine Ferarro failed to carry their lackluster presidential nominees very far. In 2004, John Edwards was supposed to be the young, attractive, allegedly Kennedy-esque candidate to put John Kerry over the top. That didn't work out so well either.

Yet the list of past vice-presidents reads like an all-star induction into the boring hall of fame: Dick Cheney, Al Gore, and Joe Biden have held the spot for nearly 20 years. So while many are hoping for an exciting or out-of-the-box kind of pick, historically those have not worked out so well.

A recent poll finds former Bush Secretary of State Condi Rice tops a poll of Republican voters with 26%, followed closely by New Jersey Governor Chris Christie at 21%, while Marco Rubio and Rick Santorum are chosen by 14% of Republican voters.

Read about the top VP contenders for 2012.

How much is a VP Pick Worth? originally appeared on About.com Conservative Politics: U.S. on Monday, April 23rd, 2012 at 08:14:42.

Permalink | Comment | Email this

Virginia is sure to be one of the top states Republicans will target in 2012. After long voting for Republicans in presidential elections --forty years to be exact-- Barack Obama pulled off an upset with 53% of the vote.

Meanwhile, former Governor and US Senator George Allen looks for a political comeback 6 years after a narrow defeat against Jim Webb. The most recent polling data in the state gives Romney a 46-41% lead over Obama among registered voters in the presidential contest, while Allen leads Kaine by 46-39% in the senate battle.

Virginia is almost must-win for the Romney campaign. Given the recent trends in the state, the odds should be in his favor. Read - Battleground 2012: Virginia.

Photo: Pool Photo, Getty Images News

Romney, Allen Look for Virginia Victories originally appeared on About.com Conservative Politics: U.S. on Thursday, April 19th, 2012 at 08:32:00.

Permalink | Comment | Email this

If you think Obama has a clear advantage in 2012, think again.

While Obama won in 2008 by over 9 million votes, the fortunes of the GOP need only flip in a handful of states to take back the White House. Think: Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. Flip those three back into the GOP column and we might be welcoming in a new administration in 2013.

The Obama advantages of 2008 are now gone. His signature achievement is unpopular. The unemployment rate is still higher than when he took over and the number of people in the workforce is dropping dramatically. Gas prices have doubled. Unable to talk about his accomplishments, his plan for victory is to launch class, gender, and race attacks against Republicans. The presidential election is certainly either party's to win or lose. The Republicans are hoping the electoral trends of the last three years continue, while the Democrats will be hoping for a little change in that pattern. Read: The 2012 Electoral College: How Conservatives Can Defeat Obama

How Can Romney Defeat Obama? originally appeared on About.com Conservative Politics: U.S. on Monday, April 16th, 2012 at 22:27:29.

Permalink | Comment | Email this

Ann Romney's career decision to be a stay-at-home mom was thrust into the spotlight when a Democratic strategist stated that Ann had "never worked a day in her life." The comment created a bit of a controversy as the claim seemed to dismiss the value of motherhood, and especially the value of a mother who forgoes a "career" to raise five children.

According to 2007 figures from the Census Bureau there are approximately 5.6 million stay-at-home-mothers in the United States. That number would actually reflect one of the largest voting blocs in the country. Read More - Ann Romney: 2012 Game Changer

Can Ann Romney Change the Game? originally appeared on About.com Conservative Politics: U.S. on Friday, April 13th, 2012 at 00:17:14.

Permalink | Comment | Email this

My top Top Eight Conservatives for 2012 are now ready for review. From spreading the conservative message to defeating Obama, all of these people have an important role to play this year, should they accept the challenge.

The list includes both Sarah Palin and, yes, Ron Paul. Who did I leave off of the list? Let me know here.

#1 Sarah Palin: Sure she didn't run for president, but Sarah Palin remains one of the most electrifying conservatives in the country. In 2008, she delivered one of the best speeches in Republican National Convention history. She is hard-hitting, strong, and effective. If you need proof, look no further than how much liberals despise her and aim to destroy her years after her last run for office. As the Democrats aim to make the 2012 elections about a bizarre "Republicans hate women" argument, the conservative movement needs Sarah Palin to be active in destroying this false narrative.

Read The Rest

Top Eight Conservatives for 2012 originally appeared on About.com Conservative Politics: U.S. on Monday, April 9th, 2012 at 10:22:05.

Permalink | Comment | Email this

Santorum is on the verge of doing something that would be a major blow to both his 2012 presidential run and any possible future run: Losing his home state. While it's not unheard of (think Ron Paul losing Texas in 2008), it is very rare for a serious contender to do so. In 2008, Romney dropped out and endorsed McCain, despite being just one state back at the time (McCain had 12 victories, Romney had 11).

Leading conservatives have been making the argument it is now time to support Romney, but Santroum remains defiant. Romney currently leads the field with about 658 delegates, dwarfing Santorum's haul of 285, Newt's take of 135, and Paul's showing of 51.

A new Public Policy Polling poll has Santorum losing to Romney 42-37%. The PA primary is April 24th, along with a number of other contests where Romney has double-digit leads including New York, Connecticut, and Rhode Island.

Sometimes it's wiser to quit when you are still somewhat competitive and you still have support, as that support can carry over to a future run. As a candidate, you start losing goodwill at some point, and Santorum may have long ago crossed that bridge.

Photo: Courtesy Gage Skidmore

Will Santorum Lose His Home State? originally appeared on About.com Conservative Politics: U.S. on Thursday, April 5th, 2012 at 07:59:54.

Permalink | Comment | Email this

Without question, most of Romney's problems attracting the conservative base during the 2012 Republican primary are a result of his past. There is little getting around that, as a Massachusetts Republican, Romney was all too willing to hold moderate-to-liberal positions on a number of issues that he has since "evolved" on.

While conservatives have every right to be skeptical of Mitt Romney being the conservative he now claims to be, it is also wise to go the "trust-but-verify" route and support Romney to the fullest extent possible. While many will argue the only reason to support Romney is because he is not Obama, there are actually a number of reasons why Romney is actually a very good choice for conservatives in 2012. Continue Reading

Also, Discuss this topic in the forum

Why Conservatives Should Support Mitt Romney originally appeared on About.com Conservative Politics: U.S. on Tuesday, April 3rd, 2012 at 14:22:29.

Permalink | Comment | Email this

Update 3/30/12: Paul Ryan Endorses Romney: "I think it's important we coalesce as conservatives and focus on the big task at hand which is defeating Barack Obama in the fall."

Update 3/29/12: Marco Rubio endorses Romney. "I have no doubt Romney will govern as a conservative" - Marco Rubio.

He states Romney offers "stark contrast" to Obama and notes that he has been a governor of an important state and a successful businessman. Rubio also denounced the contested convention strategy of Romney's opponents.

While conservative hero Jim DeMint did not officially endorse Romney, he signaled that Romney was probably going to be the nominee and that he was okay with that.

"[What] I can tell conservatives from my perspective is that, I'm not only comfortable with Romney, I'm excited about the possibility of him possibly being our nominee. Again, this is not a formal endorsement and I do not intend to do that right now, but I just think we just need to look at where we are."

Al Cardenas, Chairman of the American Conservative Union, also wrote an op-ed calling for conservatives to avoid a prolonged primary and fight at the convention floor, as all scenarios point to the same outcome:

"With all due respect to my fellow conservative leaders determined to oppose Governor Romney, that is not a worthy endeavor. For the sake of our Republic, I'm not willing to wait until the Republican National Convention to sort this out. It's time to unite behind a worthy presidential candidate, build our organization and raise the resources necessary to defeat the liberal electoral machine."

"Governor Romney is an honorable, worthy, competent, conservative candidate for our next commander-in-chief. I'm proud to support his campaign for president. His opponents ran great races and all four men became better candidates because of the effort. I thank and congratulate them all on their contributions to the race, but their time is over."

Senator Mike Lee of Utah also announced his support for Romney this week. Lee was one of the top 2010 tea party stars and he ousted long-time incumbent Bob Bennett in the Republican primary.

Meanwhile, Freedomworks, longtime Romney antagonists, have dropped their opposition to the Romney campaign and are shifting their efforts into helping Romney defeat Obama. While not necessarily a ringing endorsement, the tea party organization has entered the "acceptance stage" of a Romney nomination. FreedomWorks Vice President Russ Walker chimed in:

"It is a statistical fact that the numbers favor Mitt Romney. We are dedicated to defeating Obama and electing a conservative Senate that will help Romney repeal Obamacare and address the nation's economic and spending challenges."

Other key conservative and tea party endorsements include:

Jan Brewer - Arizona Governor: "Mitt is by far the man who can go in and win"

Nikki Haley - South Carolina Governor: "Today is the day that I'm throwing all of my support behind Mitt Romney for president. What I wanted was someone who knew what it was like to turn broken companies around."

John Bolton - Former UN Ambassador: "Mitt Romney possesses the strongest vision for America's leadership role in the world. Mitt Romney will restore our military, repair relations with our closest allies, and ensure that no adversary -- including Iran -- ever questions American resolve."

Photo: US Senator Jim Demint - Win Mcnamee, Getty Images

Tea Party Starts Lining Up Behind Romney originally appeared on About.com Conservative Politics: U.S. on Monday, March 26th, 2012 at 07:31:29.

Permalink | Comment | Email this

Romney, feeling confident of winning the GOP nomination, is beginning to lay the groundwork for his general election case against Obama. One of the areas of attack will obviously be Obamacare. Romney argues in favor of states being able to "experiment" and implement healthcare legislation that best fits each individual state's needs, rather than an over-reaching, big government mess. He cites his own experience as governor of Massachusetts:

When I was governor of Massachusetts, we instituted a plan that got our citizens insured without raising taxes and without a government takeover. Other states will choose to go in different directions. It is the genius of federalism that it encourages experimentation, with each state pursuing what works best for them. ObamaCare's disregard for this core aspect of U.S. tradition is one of its most egregious failings.

Obviously, Romney's Massachusetts health care plan, "Romneycare," has been his major weak point in his quest for the GOP nomination. But as the campaign moves against Obama, his argument strengthens. While conservatives do not agree with the principles of Romneycare, we can agree with the principles of federalism and allowing every state to choose a different path.

The other argument falling Romney's way in the Obamcare/Romneycare debate is that the legislators and the citizens overwhelmingly approved of the health care law, and polls indicate that Massachusetts residents still favor the law by a 2-1 margin. Contrast this with Obamacare, a law that required back-room deals and political maneuvering to pass the congress and has received consistent public opposition.

Romney Cites Federalism, Promises to Repeal Obamacare originally appeared on About.com Conservative Politics: U.S. on Thursday, March 22nd, 2012 at 20:47:03.

Permalink | Comment | Email this

Over the weekend, GOP frontrunner Mitt Romney won the Puerto Rico caucuses with a whopping 88% of the vote, his largest margin by far this election cycle.

On Tuesday, he turned in an impressive performance in Illinois and is likely to increase his delegate lead handsomely heading into the April contests. Next month is also shaping up to be a favorable month for Romney, and it will be interesting to see what strategies his opponents have going forward.

See Also: 2012 GOP Nomination Results

Romney Sweeps Puerto Rico, Illinois originally appeared on About.com Conservative Politics: U.S. on Tuesday, March 20th, 2012 at 21:28:18.

Permalink | Comment | Email this

Since Super Tuesday, Rick Santorum has notched three state victories to just one for GOP nominee frontrunner Mitt Romney. But a strong win in Kansas and two close wins in Alabama and Mississippi were check-mated by Romney sweeps in Puerto Rico, Hawaii, American Samoa, US Virgin Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam. Romney actually starts the post-Super Tuesday run by increasing his delegate margin over Santorum and Gingrich.

Gingrich had a rough week by once again failing to win anywhere, and Santorum's victories in the south were trumpeted by a bizarre decision to make a play for Puerto Rico. Three days of bad press and a 70+ point shellacking later, Santorum aims for yet another comeback. But the upcoming contests will prove very difficult. Here is what we have to look forward to and what to expect:

More Easy Romney Wins Romney's path to the nomination remains most stable for a few reasons. First, when Romney wins, he often wins big and takes most of the delegates in those contests. When he loses a state, he usually does well enough to pick up a ton of delegates also. This delegate march will likely continue through April. Contests in Maryland, Connecticut, Washington, D.C., Delaware, New York, and Rhode Island are all tailor-made for Romney, and he will probably win most of those without much effort, racking up a load of delegates on the way. Illinois votes this Tuesday, and polls are pointing to a decent victory for Romney here as well. Rough Terrain for Santorum/Gingrich While both Gingrich and Santorum might try to compete in New York, it remains a state that requires a lot of money and resources. They can certainly pick up some delegates, but a victory seems less likely. The other five states previously listed will probably see little of either candidate. This leaves Wisconsin, which only has old polling data available, and Pennsylvania, Santorum's "home" state. While Pennsylvania is a should-win for Santorum, an average of polls has him under 40% there and he will probably need to spend more time and money than he wants to avoid an embarrassment. Making matters worse, a breakdown of the delegate-selection process in Pennsylvania points to the strong possibility that Romney could get most of the delegates in there. Two Odd Contests Remember when Rick Santorum "won" the Missouri primary back in early February? Well, that was all for show because state law required it. The "real" Missouri contest is being held in caucus-format for a week, and is actually going on now. On the upside for Rick Santorum, he is likely to win the Missouri caucuses. On the downside, he has already been claiming a Missouri victory for over a month, so it's unlikely much momentum can be gained from winning the same state twice. Additionally, while the primary portion was considered a beauty contest, the caucus portion has been a complete mess thus far, and it will be weeks before the actual victor is known.

The other contest that anyone could win is in Louisiana, which offers half of their delegates through a primary, and the other half through a caucus system (and each does not have to influence the other). The primary and caucus are also held four days apart, because who wouldn't want to vote twice in one week in two different formats? The primary portion of the contest offers delegates proportionally and the race could wind up splitting them evenly among Santorum, Gingrich, and Romney.

More Delegate Math On March 8th, I released my own calculations of why it would be difficult for anyone to stop Romney. Since then, he has followed that script accordingly by handily winning Puerto Rico under the "winner-take-all" category, taking over 80% of delegates in proportional contests that favored him, and picking up around 25% of the delegates in contests he was not suppose to be competitive in. Through the end of April, it looks as though Romney could land easy victories in seven upcoming contests, while races in Wisconsin, Louisiana, and Pennsylvania could still go his way. Currently, Romney's delegate lead over Santorum is in the neighborhood of 279. If Romney continues his current delegate track, that lead will be at least 400 by the end of April.

Photo: Chip Somodeville, Getty Images

Upcoming GOP Contests: What to Look For originally appeared on About.com Conservative Politics: U.S. on Monday, March 19th, 2012 at 00:08:45.

Permalink | Comment | Email this

The Obama administration has once again blocked a state from passing reasonable voter identification laws, infringing on Texas' right to help ensure fair elections. The new law would simply require that a voter must show a valid identification in order to cast a ballot.

The lack of a reasonable voting requirement measures leaves the door open for all sorts of fraud, including ballots to be cast by non-citizens, or high turnout of recently deceased voters. According to the voter application website for Texas, I can get a voter I.D. without providing any proof of residency, a drivers license, or even a social security number. There's seems to be little or nothing that would stop a group of individuals for registering many times over, casting multiple early votes, requesting absentee ballots or voting at multiple locations. It's open season for voting in Texas, in other words.

The Obama administration instead argues that such a law is "unfair" and it is unreasonable to expect that someone could be able to obtain a government-issued identification, even if it were free. Yet the government does not feel this way about showing identification for entering a federal building or nightclub, applying for a passport, applying for a job, or purchasing alcohol, tobacco, airline tickets, train tickets, guns, cars, and homes. If anything, it's almost unreasonable to assume that a US citizen would not have some form of valid photo identification.

Previously: Over the past several election cycles there have been many alleged instances of voting fraud found to have occurred during the voting process. There have been instances of votes being cast in the names of the recently deceased, allegations of double registrations, and absentee voter fraud. In many states you can simply show up to vote with any registered name and be allowed to vote, without proof. A number of states have sought to make it a requirement to show a government issued ID to vote, which has proven both logical and popular idea among voters. One such state is South Carolina, which passed legislation that would have required voters to present an official government-issued photo ID. The law doesn't seem too unreasonable given that there are laws requiring ID's for all sorts of things including driving, purchasing alcohol or tobacco, and flying on an airplane. But once again, the DOJ interfered and prevented South Carolina from enacting the law.

Obama Fights Rational Voter I.D. Laws originally appeared on About.com Conservative Politics: U.S. on Wednesday, March 14th, 2012 at 21:24:38.

Permalink | Comment | Email this

Update: Santorum and Romney split four contests. Santorum wins contests in Alabama and Mississippi, while Romney wins Hawaii and American Samoa. Romney actually increases the delegate spread, however, by more decisive wins in his contests. Newt actually had somewhat of a comeback and actually posted his best results in quite some time.

Mississippi, Alabama, and Hawaii vote today in the 2012 Republican primary as they aim to be the choice to take on Obama in Novemeber. They become the 24th, 25th, and 26th states to cast ballots, thus marking a bit of a midway point in the contest. Here is what to expect and what is at stake for each of the candidates:

Mitt Romney Romney remains the front runner and is far ahead of his opponents in delegates won, vote percentage gained, and states carried. He is expected to win Hawaii, but was not expected to do well in the southern contests until polls earlier in the week showed Romney either tied or ahead in both states. His continued goal is to rack up delegates in states he is not supposed to do well in while dominating in states he is supposed to win. So far it has added up to a winning strategy. Rick Santorum Santorum seems resigned to the likelihood that he can't win enough delegates outright to topple Romney and seems content with a "take it to the convention" strategy. In order to get to a contested convention, he and Newt need to slow down Romney's accumulation of delegates in states like Alabama and Mississippi. Santorum is also trying to break out of his regional candidate status and score solid wins outside of his comfort zone. Newt Gingrich Newt is the other candidate who wants to see this race go into a contested convention, but he wants to be the alternative to Romney in such a scenario. Alabama and Mississippi become essential to his resurgence strategy as he is the "southerner" of the race. Two wins tonight would bring his win total to four, not an impressive haul but good enough to carry him through a handful of upcoming favorable states including Louisiana.

Photo: Jessica McGowan, Getty Images

Newt Shoots for Southern Comeback: Results In originally appeared on About.com Conservative Politics: U.S. on Tuesday, March 13th, 2012 at 18:34:40.

Permalink | Comment | Email this