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While Mitt Romney is on a four state winning streak and is out-pacing John McCain's 2008 performance on most fronts, he still has a very long way to go. Super Tuesday can either solidify his standing as the front-runner or allow for a competitor, most likely Rick Santorum, to re-emerge.

Some of the 10 Super Tuesday states are easy to predict, but others remain a big question mark. Polls of individual "Super Tuesday" states have been rare and, in most instances, only poll a handful of the larger contests. The impact of the recent Romney victories and Santorum losses has yet to be determined. National polls suggest he has lost most of his momentum.

As of today, here is how things look to be shaping up:

Three Easy Romney Wins

Romney will be an easy winner in Massachusetts, where he was governor, and most likely in demographically-similar Vermont. He was handed a gift in Virginia where longtime residents Newt Gingrich, who failed to submit enough valid signatures, and Rick Santorum, who didn't even try to submit signatures, won't even be on the ballot.

Newt Good For Georgia, Maybe

While he once was a major favorite in the state he represented in congress, four straight polls have Newt hanging out in the 24-39% range. Really any of the candidates could pull out a win here, but Newt will still be favored. Romney, the toughest challenger, would need a big enough boost from his recent wins and for Santorum to grab enough votes from Newt for that to happen.

Santorum "Must Wins"

While Santorum has yet to notch a big win (he had less than 30,000 votes in all three caucus victories) he is still considered Romney's main competition and is the favorite in both Tennessee and Oklahoma. In 2008, Mike Huckabee won Tennessee while McCain pulled out a win in Oklahoma on Super Tuesday. Santorum must win both of these states to remain competitive in the long run.

Ohio: The Big Get

Certain states always get more attention than others. On Super Tuesday, Ohio is that state. Newt has split his time between Georgia and Ohio for the better part of a month. Santorum has been busy battling in Michigan with Romney and probably missed out on precious opportunity to collect early votes. Romney has been the only candidate with an early-vote operation and the ability to launch a campaign in multiple states at one time. These factors, combined with momentum, could give Romney the edge.

The Unpredictable Rest

Alaska, Idaho, and North Dakota round out the rest of the Tuesday contests. All three will be low-turnout caucuses and will be somewhat unpredictable. Romney actually won Alaska and North Dakota in 2008, while Idaho held a primary after Romney withdrew. Santorum has done well in smaller caucuses like these, but only when he has been able to heavily out-campaign his opponents. This won't happen here. It could be a clean sweep for Romney once again based on his continuing momentum and the fact that his competition has been able to spare little resources outside of the main Super Tuesday contests.

The Bottom Line

To really secure the nomination lead, Romney would need to win Ohio or to pull off an upset in Georgia, Oklahoma, or Tennessee and take the three small caucus states. If he wins seven states, it's hard to see his momentum derailed. Gingrich will probably only win Georgia and anything beyond that will give him reason to continue on. Santorum really needs to win Ohio, Oklahoma, and Tennessee. Since he is considered the favorite in those states, he would also need to steal a caucus state or two. If he leaves Super Tuesday with only two victories, the road ahead becomes increasingly difficult.

See Also: Super Tuesday Forum Predictions

Super Tuesday Preview originally appeared on About.com Conservative Politics: U.S. on Thursday, March 1st, 2012 at 23:16:31.

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The possibility, not even the probability, of remote wiping of a cell phone with applications for nearly all phones, is enough to justify entering the phone to get its number. The question of a more detailed search is saved for another day. United States v. Flores-Lopez, 10-3803 (7th Cir. February 29, 2012):

This appeal requires us to consider the circumstances in which the search of a cell phone is permitted by the Fourth Amendment even if the search is not authorized by a warrant. Lurking behind this issue is the question whether and when a laptop or desktop computer, tablet, or other type of computer (whether called a “computer” or not) can be searched without a warrant—for a modern cell phone is a computer.

. . .

A modern cell phone is in one aspect a diary writ large. Even when used primarily for business it is quite likely to contain, or provide ready access to, a vast body of personal data. The potential invasion of privacy in a search of a cell phone is greater than in a search of a “container” in a conventional sense even when the conventional container is a purse that contains an address book (itself a container) and photos. Judges are becoming aware that a computer (and remember that a modern cell phone is a computer) is not just another purse or address book. “[A]nalogizing computers to other physical objects when applying Fourth Amendment law is not an exact fit because computers hold so much personal and sensitive information touching on many private aspects of life. ... [T]here is a far greater potential for the ‘intermingling’ of documents and a consequent invasion of privacy when police execute a search for evidence on a computer.” United States v. Lucas, 640 F.3d 168, 178 (6th Cir. 2011); see also United States v. Walser, 275 F.3d 981, 986 (10th Cir. 2001); United States v. Carey, 172 F.3d 1268, 1275 (10th Cir. 1999); cf. United States v. Comprehensive Drug Testing, Inc., 621 F.3d 1162, 1175-77 (9th Cir. 2010); United States v. Otero, 563 F.3d 1127, 1132 (10th Cir. 2009). An iPhone application called iCam allows you to access your home computer’s webcam so that you can survey the inside of your home while you’re a thousand miles away. “iCam—Webcam Video Streaming,” http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/icam-webcam-videostreaming/id296273730?mt=8 (visited Feb. 6, 2012, as were the other web sites that we cite in this opinion). At the touch of a button a cell phone search becomes a house search, and that is not a search of a “container” in any normal sense of that word, though a house contains data.

A complication in this case is that, remarkably, the record does not indicate the brand, model, or year of the defendant’s cell phone, so we do not know how dumb or smart it is. But does that matter? Even the dumbest of modern cell phones gives the user access to large stores of information.

. . .

We said it was conceivable, not probable, that a confederate of the defendant would have wiped the data from the defendant’s cell phone before the government could obtain a search warrant; and it could be argued that the risk of destruction of evidence was indeed so slight as to be outweighed by the invasion of privacy from the search. But the “invasion,” limited as it was to the cell phone’s number, was also slight. And in deciding whether a search is properly incident to an arrest and therefore does not require a warrant, the courts do not conduct a cost-benefit analysis, with the invasion of privacy on the cost side and the risk of destruction of evidence (or of an assault on the arresting officers) on the benefit side of allowing the immediate search. Toting up costs and benefits is not a feasible undertaking to require of police officers conducting a search incident to an arrest. Thus, even when the risk either to the police officers or to the existence of the evidence is negligible, the search is allowed, United States v. Robinson, supra, 414 U.S. at 235, provided it’s no more invasive than, say, a frisk, or the search of a conventional container, such as Robinson’s cigarette pack, in which heroin was found. If instead of a frisk it’s a strip search, the risk to the officers’ safety or to the preservation of evidence of crime must be greater to justify the search. Campbell v. Miller, 499 F.3d 711, 717 (7th Cir. 2007), citing Mary Beth G. v. City of Chicago, 723 F.2d 1263, 1273 (7th Cir. 1983). Looking in a cell phone for just the cell phone’s phone number does not exceed what decisions like Robinson and Concepcion allow.

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Romney tucked three more victories into his win column this week, and he is looking to be in decent shape for Super Tuesday, where 10 states will be up for grabs.

Arizona

Romney easily won the Arizona primary on Tuesday night with 47% of the vote and took away all 29 delegates. Short on organization and money, no other candidate really tried for the important border state. If Romney is the eventual nominee, it is promising to see how effective his early-voting efforts have been this primary season.

Michigan

The primary in Michigan earned most of the attention as it is both Romney's birth state and demographically-friendly to Rick Santorum, who won caucuses in nearby Iowa and Minnesota. The race was tight, but Romney pulled out a 41-38% victory over his rival. Romney actually dominated with Republican voters, winning that group 48-37%, but Santorum made it close with a heavy push by Democrats who tried to alter the outcome of the race.

Wyoming

And finally, if you blinked you would have missed that Wyoming actually wrapped up a long caucus on Wednesday night with Romney coming out on top once again with 39% of the vote. While the victory will not attract much attention, even as it has as many delegates as Arizona and Michigan, it shows why Romney has the easiest path to victory. While a handful of states are viewed as "important" because they are likely to be close, Romney is snatching up victories in most of the other states with little effort or opposition.

See Also: 2012 Primary Results and Calendar

Romney Racking Up Wins originally appeared on About.com Conservative Politics: U.S. on Thursday, March 1st, 2012 at 14:48:18.

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It was Rick Santorum's night to prove he was the best Republican option to counter Obama in the 2012 Presidential election. Unfortunately for him, the reviews were not good.

The lackluster debate performance should not have been entirely unexpected. Santorum had never really stood out in any of the previous 20 or so debates. He was always viewed as a low-energy candidate who could never quite get to the point when making an argument. But expectations were set unreasonably high. And like with Newt in Florida, he was out-matched by Mitt Romney, who almost always is the most prepared of any of the candidates.

As a results, conservatives are starting to wonder if Santorum really is the answer to go up against Barack Obama. Some have started drifting back to Newt Gingrich, again. But at least one poll, by Mitchell Rosetta, shows Romney has earned his biggest lead in weeks in Michigan over Santorum. While only a 36-33% advantage for Romney, it shows a turnabout in a state where Santorum once led by as much as 15%.

Photo: Presidential Candidate Rick Santorum. Source: Gage Skidmore

Arizona Debate: Santorum Struggles originally appeared on About.com Conservative Politics: U.S. on Thursday, March 1st, 2012 at 14:48:17.

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Now that Rick Santorum has emerged as the latest "anti-Romney" of the 2012 campaign he will certainly be the focus of the final debate prior to primaries in Arizona and Michigan. And if you thought that the 2012 campaign was going to be a referendum on Barack Obama, the economy, gas prices, and Obamcare: think again.

Fairly or unfairly, the rise of Rick Santorum has caused a monumental shift in the nomination battle at large, and Santorum's social views and statements have been grabbing headlines. In the last week he has been criticized about his views on women in the military, comments in his book about women in the workplace (and then when he claimed his wife actually wrote that section of the book), position on contraception being bad for women, opposition to insurance coverage for prenatal screenings, comments about homosexuality, and so on.

Santorum, meanwhile, has doubled-down on most of the controversy and seems to be relishing the debate. Conservatives, however, might start getting concerned if these statements continue to overshadow economic issues and continue driving the headlines.

Photo: Rick Santorum Campaigns. Source: Gage Skidmore

Santorum Likely Focus of Next Debate originally appeared on About.com Conservative Politics: U.S. on Thursday, March 1st, 2012 at 14:48:16.

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After his impressive victory in Florida, it seemed Mitt Romney might run away with the Republican nomination for president. But Iowa caucus winner Rick Santorum had something to say about that, and the two candidates split a handful of victories following Florida.

Santorum implemented an "abandon Florida" strategy that enabled him skip the expensive primary there and start campaigning in friendlier, low turnout caucus territory. The move paid off and Santorum scored two victories in Colorado and Minnesota. These wins were sandwiched between victories for Romney in Nevada and Maine.

See Also: GOP Primary Results

Photo: Romney Campaigns for Votes. Source: AFP/Getty Images

Santorum & Romney Split Victories originally appeared on About.com Conservative Politics: U.S. on Thursday, March 1st, 2012 at 14:48:15.

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